What is in Store for us this Winter?
After this past winter where it started off very mild and finished with record setting snow and cold, we all want to know what the winter of 2015-2016 will be like. We've had about two to years now of fairly cold winters with decent amount of snow. If you look over the past decade you'll see patterns of very cold winters then followed by mild winters.
Depending on who you ask or where you get your information from, you could see that we'll be getting a mild winter because of a very strong El Nino, starting the mild winter pattern. While the Farmers Almanac is calling for us to get another nasty snowy cold winter, continuing the cold pattern.
So who do we believe? In some cases you can believe both, to some extent. While historically Strong El Nino's like the one that we are suppose to be getting have made the Northeast more mild, go back and remind yourself what 1997-1998 was like. From all accounts this El Nino will be as strong or stronger than the one that happened in 1997-1998, which went on to affect weather patterns on a global level. While strong El Nino's usually mean a mild winter, this one may be the strongest ever leading to a new standard for what a "Godzilla" El Nino will bring.
While the Farmers Almanac using a super top secret algorithm to create a generally accurate weather prediction. Over the last several decades the Farmers Almanac has had about an 80% accuracy in generally being correct about the weather. Meaning that while they may not get everything correct about the weather, for the most part they it right. Last year they said that it was going to be cold and snow all winter. It wasn't, it was cold in February and March, so they were right just not about when it would start.
One theory about the winter is being backed by following the trend that has been set by other El Nino's. While the other is being backed by a algorithm and generally being correct about the weather 80% of the time. Realistically we have no idea how bad the winter will be, we know that it will be cold at some point the winter. As more information comes out be sure to check this post out for updates.
As they say, don't like the weather just wait 5 minutes it'll change.
UPDATE (9/21/15):
The NOAA has stated that there is a 97% of a strong El Nino this winter into spring. There isn't much of a change in predicting whether we'll have a cold, snowy, mild, or warmer than average winter. A quick Google search right now would lead you believe we've settled on a cold and snowy winter again. But that is still a prediction, but it does seem to follow the pattern of a wetter than average winter as the El Nino brings more moisture. Then mixing with polar air that has leaked into our area the past couple of years.
UPDATE (10/19/15)
The NOAA has once again published a long term prediction for the winter, now stating that due to the El Nino the Northeast should be warmer than usual but wetter. It would seem to be on par with the winter of 97-98. While this does not mean that we won't see any cold weather, it just means as a whole it could be warmer than usual.
UPDATE (12/08/15)
It seems that we're getting a better picture of what is to come this winter for New England. We will in fact have an El Nino and this El Nino will be one that could push the jet stream creating a pocket where cold air will come down from the arctic and just sit there. Giving us a cold winter just like the past two years. If this is in fact what happens we won't see it until Jan-Feb 2016, similar to last year. This pocket should protect us from snow though, so look for a cold but less-snowy winter this year
UPDATE (01/27/16)
We're into the New Year without any significant snowfall or cold snaps, in fact I don't believe that we've seen a day when the temperature was in the single digits yet. It also doesn't appear that we'll be seeing the temperature get into the single digits or negatives at all this winter. This is all due to the El Nino gripping hard on the globes weather patterns and will continue to give New England a warmer than average Winter according to The Weather Channel. The Weather Channel has announced their three month (February-April) outlook for the country and is calling for above average temps over this time. This however doesn't mean that there won't be cold snaps or a Nor'eastern during this time, it just means that overall we'll see a much warmer end to the Winter.
Robert Stahelski
ckSmithSuperior Santoro Oil
So who do we believe? In some cases you can believe both, to some extent. While historically Strong El Nino's like the one that we are suppose to be getting have made the Northeast more mild, go back and remind yourself what 1997-1998 was like. From all accounts this El Nino will be as strong or stronger than the one that happened in 1997-1998, which went on to affect weather patterns on a global level. While strong El Nino's usually mean a mild winter, this one may be the strongest ever leading to a new standard for what a "Godzilla" El Nino will bring.
While the Farmers Almanac using a super top secret algorithm to create a generally accurate weather prediction. Over the last several decades the Farmers Almanac has had about an 80% accuracy in generally being correct about the weather. Meaning that while they may not get everything correct about the weather, for the most part they it right. Last year they said that it was going to be cold and snow all winter. It wasn't, it was cold in February and March, so they were right just not about when it would start.
One theory about the winter is being backed by following the trend that has been set by other El Nino's. While the other is being backed by a algorithm and generally being correct about the weather 80% of the time. Realistically we have no idea how bad the winter will be, we know that it will be cold at some point the winter. As more information comes out be sure to check this post out for updates.
As they say, don't like the weather just wait 5 minutes it'll change.
UPDATE (9/21/15):
The NOAA has stated that there is a 97% of a strong El Nino this winter into spring. There isn't much of a change in predicting whether we'll have a cold, snowy, mild, or warmer than average winter. A quick Google search right now would lead you believe we've settled on a cold and snowy winter again. But that is still a prediction, but it does seem to follow the pattern of a wetter than average winter as the El Nino brings more moisture. Then mixing with polar air that has leaked into our area the past couple of years.
UPDATE (10/19/15)
The NOAA has once again published a long term prediction for the winter, now stating that due to the El Nino the Northeast should be warmer than usual but wetter. It would seem to be on par with the winter of 97-98. While this does not mean that we won't see any cold weather, it just means as a whole it could be warmer than usual.
UPDATE (12/08/15)
It seems that we're getting a better picture of what is to come this winter for New England. We will in fact have an El Nino and this El Nino will be one that could push the jet stream creating a pocket where cold air will come down from the arctic and just sit there. Giving us a cold winter just like the past two years. If this is in fact what happens we won't see it until Jan-Feb 2016, similar to last year. This pocket should protect us from snow though, so look for a cold but less-snowy winter this year
UPDATE (01/27/16)
We're into the New Year without any significant snowfall or cold snaps, in fact I don't believe that we've seen a day when the temperature was in the single digits yet. It also doesn't appear that we'll be seeing the temperature get into the single digits or negatives at all this winter. This is all due to the El Nino gripping hard on the globes weather patterns and will continue to give New England a warmer than average Winter according to The Weather Channel. The Weather Channel has announced their three month (February-April) outlook for the country and is calling for above average temps over this time. This however doesn't mean that there won't be cold snaps or a Nor'eastern during this time, it just means that overall we'll see a much warmer end to the Winter.
Robert Stahelski
ckSmithSuperior Santoro Oil
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